Cal Poly
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
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RankNameGradeRating
5  Laura Hollander FR 19:05
237  Vanessa Hancock SR 20:27
451  Savannah Pio SO 20:53
487  Meghan Breadmore SO 20:57
705  Alex Ciaraglia SR 21:13
952  Michelle Read FR 21:30
1,073  Rachel Bush FR 21:39
1,091  Sara Van Dyke FR 21:40
1,100  Kasey Urman JR 21:41
1,109  Ashley Bergstrom SO 21:41
2,094  Hanna Edwards SO 22:45
National Rank #49 of 339
West Region Rank #8 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 0.3%
Most Likely Finish 10th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.0%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 0.4%
Top 10 in Regional 57.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Laura Hollander Vanessa Hancock Savannah Pio Meghan Breadmore Alex Ciaraglia Michelle Read Rachel Bush Sara Van Dyke Kasey Urman Ashley Bergstrom Hanna Edwards
Stanford Invitational 09/29 1226 21:13 21:22 21:42 21:41 23:00
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 773 19:07 20:18 21:06 20:46 21:26 21:19 22:31
Big West Championships 10/27 712 19:12 20:33 20:28 20:40 21:02 21:26 21:40 21:54 21:39
West Region Championships 11/09 844 19:06 20:31 20:57 22:00 21:13 21:35 21:59
NCAA Championship 11/17 19:06





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 0.3% 26.6 605 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Region Championship 100% 10.2 305 0.0 0.4 2.5 7.6 12.2 16.8 17.4 15.2 12.1 8.3 4.6 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Laura Hollander 100% 4.5 12.7 12.5 11.0 9.9 7.7 6.8 5.7 5.1 4.6 3.4 2.9 2.8 2.2 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3
Vanessa Hancock 0.7% 115.5
Savannah Pio 0.3% 181.0
Meghan Breadmore 0.3% 202.0
Alex Ciaraglia 0.3% 227.0
Michelle Read 0.3% 240.0
Rachel Bush 0.3% 246.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Laura Hollander 1.5 38.0 26.1 15.3 8.8 4.4 2.6 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Vanessa Hancock 43.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.7
Savannah Pio 72.4 0.0
Meghan Breadmore 77.6 0.0
Alex Ciaraglia 104.9
Michelle Read 129.5
Rachel Bush 139.8




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 3
4 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 4
5 0.4% 28.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 5
6 2.5% 5.5% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.1 6
7 7.6% 7.6 7
8 12.2% 0.2% 0.0 12.2 0.0 8
9 16.8% 0.1% 0.0 16.8 0.0 9
10 17.4% 17.4 10
11 15.2% 15.2 11
12 12.1% 12.1 12
13 8.3% 8.3 13
14 4.6% 4.6 14
15 2.1% 2.1 15
16 0.6% 0.6 16
17 0.1% 0.1 17
18 0.0% 0.0 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.0 0.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Dartmouth 7.5% 1.0 0.1
Colorado St. 1.2% 1.0 0.0
UC Davis 1.1% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Iowa 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Virginia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.1
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 2.0